Monday, 6 May 2013

The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 4: Miscellaneous Bets

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers

During the three week gap between Bahrain and Spain I've analysed the results so far this season to see which drivers have been the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in the Winning Driver, Podium Finish, Top Six Finish and Top Ten Finish betting markets.

To round things off before we move onto Spain I've also produced some 'Betting Profit' charts for a few randomly selected formula 1 betting markets such as Fastest Lap, Fastest Qualifier, Winning Margin, plus a few others.

Fastest Lap:

To start things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for the fastest lap market:

Fastest LapProfit*Winning Bet
Sergio Perez17.001
Kimi Raikkonen6.001
Sebastian Vettel4.082
Rest Of The Field-4.000

* The 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at each Grand Prix of the season.  Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened on SkyBet.

Fastest lap is a hard market to predict and can produce some very unpredictable results at times, so the above results don't really mean too much, but Sergio Perez leads the chart thanks to his fastest lap in Malaysia when he was priced at 20/1

Fastest Qualifier:

Next up is the 'Betting Profit' chart for fastest qualifier, i.e. pole position:

Fastest QualifierProfitWinning Bet
Nico Rosberg6.001
Lewis Hamilton3.501
Sebastian Vettel1.952
Rest Of The Field-4.000

At this early stage of the season you can't really read too much into the above results, other than to conclude that it's hard to make a profit betting on qualifying, but if you were looking for a comparitively safe bet then once again Sebastian Vettel looks to be cementing his reputation as an excellent qualifier.


Winning Margin:

Moving on to the 'Betting Profit' chart for Winning Margin:

Winning MarginProfitWinning Bet
6 seconds or more1.393
Under 6 seconds-2.171

Only Malaysia has so far seen a winning margin of less than 6 seconds when Mark Webber crossed the line 4.2 seconds behind team-mate Sebastian Vettel in controversial circumstances.  Of the four Grand Prix so far this season we're yet to have a dramatic close finish for the victory, and the average winning margin has been 8.95 seconds.

Safety Car:

Next up is 'Safety Car' which is one of the less popular markets but it's worth a mention due to the trend emerging:

Safety CarProfitWinning Bet

For whatever reason, we seem to be getting less safety threatening incidents this year, with the safety car yet to be called into action.  This is a trend the bookies have obviously noticed as the odds on 'Safety Car - No' have got gradually shorter as the season has gone on.

Winning Team:

And finally to round things off, here's the 'Betting Profit' chart for Winning Team:

Winning TeamProfitWinning Bet
Red Bull1.382
Rest Of The Field-4.000

At first glance this would appear to be a very tricky bettng market to make a profit from, and therefore perhaps one to avoid, but when you consider that at the current time it's only really Red Bull, Ferrari, Lotus and Mercedes who have a serious chance of fighting for victories, the Winning Team betting market then begins to look more appealing.

. . . . . . . .

If you want to check out my previous posts featuring various 'Betting Profit' charts then you can find them at the following links:
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 1: Winning Driver / Podium Finish
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 2: Top Six Finish
The Form Guide After Bahrain - Part 3: Top Ten Finish

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Odds were current at time of publication but are subject to change.

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