Wednesday 3 July 2013

German Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide

Formula 1 Betting By Numbers


As there's only one week between the British and German Grand Prix, I haven't had a chance to provide the usual detailed driver by driver analysis of each formula 1 betting market, so instead I'm just going to post an overall summary showing details of the most profitable bets, and also the safest bets, in some of the most popular formula 1 betting markets.

Based on the statistics from the first eight Grand Prix of the season, as we head to the Nurburgring the best bets so far have been...


Most Profitable Bets:


Winning Driver:  Nico Rosberg  (125% profit / £18 return from £8 staked)
Podium Finish:  Romain Grosjean  (50% profit / £12 return from £8 staked)
Top Six Finish:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (112.5% profit / £17 return from £8 staked)
Top Ten Finish:  Paul Di Resta  (39.4% profit / £11.15 return from £8 staked)
Fastest Qualifier:  Nico Rosberg  (187.5% profit / £23 return from £8 staked)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (7.9% profit / £8.63 return from £8 staked)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (39.8% profit / £11.18 return from £8 staked)
Fastest Lap:  Esteban Gutierrez  (1162.5% profit / £101 return from £8 staked)
Lap 1 Leader:  Nico Rosberg  (187.5% profit / £23 return from £8 staked)
First To Retire:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (325% profit / £34 return from £8 staked)
First Team To Retire:  Toro Rosso  (125% profit / £18 return from £8 staked)
Safety Car:  No  (59.9% profit / £12.79 return from £8 staked)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (62.3% profit / £12.98 return from £8 staked)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (11.9% profit / £8.95 return from £8 staked)

N.B. The above figures are based on the return you would have received if you placed a £1 bet on the same driver/result at every Grand Prix of the season based on the odds when the market first opened, i.e. before practise and qualifying.


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Safest Bets:


Winning Driver:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 wins from 8 Grand Prix)
Podium Finish:  Sebastian Vettel  (5 podiums from 8 Grand Prix)
Top Six Finish:  Lewis Hamilton  (7 top six finishes from 8 Grand Prix)
Top Ten Finish:  Kimi Raikkonen  (8 top ten finishes from 8 Grand Prix)
Fastest Qualifier:  Nico Rosberg  (3 poles from 8 GP)
Winning Team:  Red Bull  (3 wins from 8 GP)
Qualify On Front Row:  Lewis Hamilton  (5 front rows from 8 GP)
Fastest Lap:  Sebastian Vettel  (3 fastest laps from 8 GP)
Lap 1 Leader:  Nico Rosberg  (3 from 8 GP)
First To Retire:  Jean-Eric Vergne  (2 from 8 GP)
First Team To Retire:  Toro Rosso  (2 from 8 GP)
Safety Car:  No  (6 from 8 GP)
Lap 1 Retirements:  None  (8 from 8 GP)
Winning Margin:  6 Seconds Or More  (5 from 8 GP)

N.B. When two or more drivers have achieved an equal success rate, I have listed the driver who would have returned the biggest profit.


Results in recent Grand Prix will obviously have more relevance to the bookies' odds for the German Grand Prix than results earlier in the season, so the above statistics are intended as no more than an informational guide to the season so far.

Since I started splitting my tips into shorter priced bets and longer priced riskier bets I've had mixed fortunes, with decent returns at Spain and Monaco but poor results at Canada and Silverstone.  It may therefore be wise to pay more attention to the above form guide than my own predictions, but as usual I'll be making a set of tips before and after qualifying for the German Grand Prix. 

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