Formula 1 Betting By Numbers
Today I look at Top Ten Finish betting and once again I've produced two charts; the first weighted in favour of recent form and the second based on the entire 2013 season.
The recent form chart is as follows:
'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Ten Finish (Current Form):
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 3.23 | 4 |
| Jenson Button | 1.39 | 5 |
| Adrian Sutil | 0.85 | 3 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 0.75 | 3 |
| Felipa Massa | 0.62 | 5 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.56 | 6 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 0.56 | 6 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 0.30 | 5 |
| Nico Rosberg | 0.19 | 5 |
| Sergio Perez | -0.17 | 3 |
| Romain Grosjean | -0.36 | 4 |
| Mark Webber | -0.55 | 5 |
| Pastor Maldonado | -1.00 | 1 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | -1.21 | 4 |
| Paul di Resta | -3.28 | 1 |
| Rest Of The Field | -3.50 | 0 |
* Profit weighted in favour of recent races. To be specific, I've calculated the returns based on a standard £1 bet on the same driver at each of the previous six Grand Prix and then applied the following multipliers; Britain 16.7%, Germany 33.3%, Hungary 50%, Belgium 66.7%, Italy 83.3% and Singapore 100%.
Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton are the only drivers to have achieved a points scoring finish at each of the previous six Grand Prix. However, if you're prepared to accept a bit more risk in return for better odds, then Nico Hulkenberg is the driver to go for with 4 Top Ten finishes from the last 6 Grand Prix, and each time he was available at odds of better than evens.
Here's the chart for the entire season:
'Betting Profit' Chart For Top Ten Finish (Entire Season):
| Top 10 Finish | Profit* | Winning Bet |
| Nico Hulkenberg | 4.93 | 6 |
| Lewis Hamilton | 1.33 | 12 |
| Jenson Button | 1.28 | 10 |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.97 | 12 |
| Sebastian Vettel | 0.82 | 12 |
| Daniel Ricciardo | 0.65 | 5 |
| Mark Webber | 0.26 | 11 |
| Felipe Massa | -0.01 | 10 |
| Kimi Raikkonen | -0.13 | 11 |
| Nico Rosberg | -0.45 | 10 |
| Adrian Sutil | -1.37 | 6 |
| Romain Grosjean | -1.84 | 8 |
| Paul di Resta | -1.85 | 7 |
| Sergio Perez | -2.00 | 6 |
| Jean-Eric Vergne | -2.50 | 3 |
| Pastor Maldonado | -8.00 | 1 |
| Rest Of The Field | -13.00 | 0 |
* As a reminder, the 'Profit' column shows the amount of profit you would have made if you'd placed a £1 bet on the same driver at every Grand Prix this season. Please note, even in the few days before first practise, the odds can sometimes vary slightly, so I've generally tried to take the odds a few days before each Grand Prix as soon as the market opened.
Nico Hulkenberg tops both Top Ten form guide charts and he was also the best Top Six bet, so you can understand why he was linked with Ferrari and why he's likely to be one of the drivers considered to replace Kimi Raikkonen at Lotus for 2014.
Tomorrow I'll round up a few miscellaneous betting categories, such as pole position, fastest lap and a few others.
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Related posts:
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 1 - Winning Driver
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 2 - Podium Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 3 - Top Six Finish
The Korean Grand Prix Form Guide: Part 5 - Miscellaneous Bets
Korean Grand Prix: The Top Bets By The Form Guide
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